International Cooperation Could Help Next-Generation Geothermal Scale Globally

Next-generation geothermal is attracting capital at a pace that could change its role in the global power mix. Financing reached about $2.2 billion in 2025, up 80% from the previous year and one hundred times the 2018 total. The investment reflects a growing bet that drilling deeper into hotter rock can make geothermal power practical in regions long considered unsuitable.

For energy planners, the appeal is straightforward: geothermal can provide electricity around the clock, using domestic resources and reducing exposure to fuel supply disruptions. As conflict unsettles energy markets and pushes prices higher, that combination looks increasingly valuable. But capital and technical progress alone won't deliver projects at scale. Countries also need to coordinate on the skills, rules, infrastructure and supply chains that let developers move from promising geology to operating plants.

Turning technical potential into projects

New Zealand, Iceland, Japan and the United States are among the countries advancing technologies designed to reach hotter resources at greater depths. These approaches could extend geothermal development well beyond conventional resource areas. The potential is large: the International Energy Agency sees more than $2 trillion in possible investment in next-generation geothermal electricity by 2050, while technological advances could open hundreds of gigawatts of deployment if costs continue to decline.

That scale creates opportunities beyond electricity generation. Countries may host projects, supply drilling services, manufacture pipes or produce power plant equipment. Regions that have previously written off geothermal should revisit their resource assessments as technology changes what can be reached. Still, the size of the opportunity shouldn't obscure the work ahead. Projects can be slowed by uncertain subsurface conditions, expensive financing, incomplete regulations and a lack of supporting infrastructure.

A new report from Clean Air Task Force, Next-Generation Geothermal at Scale: A Global Action Framework, sets out policy measures to address these barriers across regions. Its underlying message is practical: governments that leave key obstacles unresolved may struggle to deploy quickly, even as the technology becomes commercially viable.

Five areas stand out as priorities:

• Map underground geothermal resources to reduce uncertainty and improve project planning.
• Build regulatory systems that work for both industry and local communities.
• Support exploration and demonstration projects so developers can test resources and establish a path to deployment.
• Prepare the infrastructure, transmission access, supply chains and workforce that projects need, especially in places hosting first-of-a-kind developments.
• Maintain research and development to improve commercialization and expand deployment across different geologies and regions.

Individual governments can make progress on each front at home. But the market will grow faster if countries tackle them in parallel and share what they learn. A patchwork of rules, inconsistent resource data and isolated supply chains can force developers to solve the same problems repeatedly. More aligned approaches could make it easier to replicate projects and develop products for a broader market.

COP31 offers a platform for coordination

Countries are due to meet in Türkiye next month for COP31, with energy security and electrification expected to feature prominently. Governments face pressure to control energy costs and strengthen supply while also advancing climate goals. Geothermal could help connect those priorities, alongside other forms of low-emissions, firm power that can complement variable renewable generation.

The COP31 Presidency's electrification pledge aims to raise electricity's share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2025. Meeting that ambition calls for a broad set of clean technologies. Geothermal's potential contribution is dependable electricity from domestic resources, while its wider deployment could displace new fossil fuel development in the power sector.

International cooperation already has a foothold. The Clean Energy Ministerial's GeoFuture Initiative supports knowledge exchange and meetings among industry leaders focused on barriers to scaling geothermal. COP31 could broaden participation and give more countries a route to bring geothermal and other clean firm technologies into their electrification planning.

There is also a focused effort on the most demanding resources. Through the IEA's Technology Collaboration Programme, Clean Air Task Force administers a task group involving six countries that share learning on projects targeting the highest energy-content rock, known as Superhot Rock. This kind of technical exchange can help participating countries compare project experience and build knowledge around resources that remain challenging to develop.

The next step is to connect that research and learning with the countries that will build projects, supply equipment and services, and deploy geothermal at scale. Cooperation across those roles can help shorten the time needed to develop regulations and train workers. It can also feed directly into technical improvements and commercialization, as developers and suppliers learn from projects in different settings.

Build a lasting mechanism, not just a summit pledge

A COP announcement can gather attention, but the real value would come from a continuing structure for cooperation. Countries could use COP31 to establish ways to share resource data, procurement and regulatory lessons, project experience and information about supply chain needs. That exchange would help governments identify market opportunities and capabilities, while giving companies and financial institutions a clearer signal of where deployment may occur.

More predictable demand could encourage suppliers to serve a wider range of projects. As the market expands, standardized tools and materials may become commercially viable, easing reliance on costly equipment designed for a single project. A deeper supplier base could support competition and help bring down costs, making deployment possible in more countries.

The case for coordination is therefore about more than diplomatic alignment. It is about reducing repeated delays as geothermal moves into new regions and helping industry build the capabilities that projects require. Countries can contribute different strengths across the chain, from research and development to manufacturing and construction, while still pursuing their own energy security and affordability goals.

Next-generation geothermal has attracted substantial investment, and deeper drilling is broadening the map of potential resources. The next measure of progress will be whether countries can turn that momentum into shared capabilities and a steady pipeline of projects. COP31 can start that work; durable coordination after the conference will determine whether heat beneath the ground becomes a meaningful source of reliable, affordable power.